GAINESVILLE, Fla. – Nov. 28, 2012 – Florida’s consumer confidence declined four points in November to 76 from the revised October reading of 80, according to a new University of Florida (UF) study.

However consumer confidence it is still relatively high post-recession, says Chris McCarty, director of UF’s Survey Research Center in the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, even if remains historically low,

According to McCarty, the decline wasn’t a surprise.

“We expected it for two reasons,” McCarty said. “The main reason was the outcome of the elections. Florida was the most divided state in the country, with President Obama winning by 73,309 votes. No matter who won, half of the state was not going to be happy with the outcome.”

The difference was reflected in the numbers. Confidence among Democrats in Florida rose from 99 in October to 103 in November, while confidence among Republicans fell from 62 in October to 50 in November, according to McCarty’s analysis.

The survey also reflects worry about the “fiscal cliff” if scheduled tax increases and government spending cuts happen early next year. Public awareness of the potential effects has risen because media coverage increased since the presidential campaigns ended, McCarty says.

Four of the five index components declined. Respondents’ overall view that they’re better off financially than a year ago fell five points to 59, and expectations that their personal finances will rise by this time next year also fell five points to 80.

In addition, their confidence in U.S. economic conditions over the next year dropped three points to 82, while their trust in the national economy over the next five years fell six points to 80.

Only one component showed no decline. Respondents’ expectation that now is a good time to buy an expensive consumer item such as a refrigerator was unchanged at 79.

Despite the pessimistic mood suggested by the study, other economic indicators offer reasons for optimism. For example, Florida’s unemployment rate declined again in October to 8.2 percent, the lowest since the depth of the recession in 2008, with an increase in new jobs primarily in health care, tourism and real estate sectors.

Demand for Florida homes is picking up with the median price for an existing single-family home at $145,000, up 9 percent over last year. “With interest rates at a record low, the demand for housing is likely to continue well into 2013,” McCarty said.

Gas prices have declined steadily since Labor Day and may stay relatively low for several years if fracking of shale oil in the Midwest develops into a reliable source of energy, McCarty said. In addition, the stock market is still holding onto the gains made this year.

Meanwhile, “the holiday season got off to an earlier start this year, but early sales figures were mixed,” McCarty said. “Thanksgiving sales were relatively strong, but clearly robbed Black Friday sales.

Conducted Nov. 12-21, the UF study reflects the responses of 420 individuals who represent a demographic cross-section of Florida.

The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is a 2; the highest is 150.

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