Recession risk in Florida in 2008 rising

NEW YORK – Jan. 10, 2008 – Moody’s Economy.com senior managing director Steve Cochrane believes Florida’s chance of entering a recession in 2008 is as high as 60 percent, and he put several of the state’s markets at the top of his list of metro areas nationwide with the highest recession risks.

Jacksonville ranked second on the national list, while Sebastian, Punta Gorda, Panama City, Cape Coral, Tampa and Naples also made the cut. Only three non-Florida cities appears on the list, though Phoenix made the top spot.

Barry University economist Stephen Morrell says Florida fared well during the 2001 recession due to strong job growth. However, the state's unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent from 3.3 percent during the year-over-year period ended in November; and the state currently must contend with the weak housing and mortgage markets.

Experts predict further jumps in the unemployment rate, layoffs in sectors affected by the housing slump, and a decline in consumer spending as homeowners have little equity left to extract. Nevertheless, Washington Economics Group economist Tony Villamil insists that certain industries remain strong, including tourism, grocery sales and commercial real estate.

Source: Tampa Tribune (01/07/08) Sasso, Michael

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