Market Update
With Brad O’Connor Ph.D.
November 2019
TRT: 4:30
Transcribed


Brad O'Connor Directly addresses camera:  The number of existing homes listed for sale in Florida continued to decline on a year-over-year basis in November, according to the latest housing market reports from Florida Realtors. By the end of the month, the statewide inventory of on-market single-family homes was down 10-and-a-half percent compared to a year ago, while the number of listed condos and townhouses was down just over 7 percent.
These declines were not driven by market conditions in any particular part of the state, either. Single-family inventory was down year-over-year in all but two of Florida's 22 metro areas, while condo and townhouse inventory declined to varying degrees in all but three of these areas. 
The size of these declines is partially attributable to the fact that, last fall, mortgage rates were ticking upward toward levels not seen since 2011. Along with other macroeconomic factors, this shift brought about greater listing activity from homeowners and investors, and resulted in our first real upward trend in inventory since 2013. This increase was short-lived, however, as mortgage rates began to decline at the end of the year and into this year, reaching near-all-time lows by August. So in current year-over-year comparisons, we are comparing today's inventory to last year's brief inventory surge, which is why the one-year drop is so steep. Compared to this point in time *two* years ago, for instance, single-family inventory is currently up one tenth of one percent, while condo and townhouse inventory is down one percent. The main takeaway is that we had a one-year reprieve from a worsening inventory shortage, but that reprieve is now over. The underlying fundamentals of the shortage insufficient new construction and a lack of listing activity from existing homeowners are still with us and will be for some time to come.
This lack of housing supply in the face of strong demand, of course, continues to push up home values for both property type categories throughout the state. November's statewide median sale price for single-family homes was up nearly 4 percent year-over-year, rising to $265,000. Over in the condo and townhouse category, the median sale price of $195,000, a rise of nearly 5-and-a-half percent compared to a year ago.
In terms of sales, however, there was quite a divergence between the single-family home category and the condo/townhouse category. November was, as it turns out, a very strong month for closed sales of single-family homes, which were up just over 6 percent compared to a year ago. Condo and townhouse sales, on the other hand, were down by 6.3 percent compared to November 2018. The good news, though, is that we ended the month with almost 13 percent more condos and townhouses under contract compared to the previous year. So, it's plausible that we will see a decent rebound for December.
By the way, while I've got you here, let me take this opportunity to inform you of our upcoming annual economic summit, Florida Real Estate Trends. At this year's event, in addition to me, you'll be hearing from renowned forecaster and expert on Florida's economy, Dr. Sean Snaith. The two of us will be taking you through the ins-and-outs of the Sunshine State's economic and housing market trends, and we'll be providing you with our outlooks for the year ahead. And yes, we're going to have some fun while we're doing it!
Additionally, you'll also be hearing from a panel on the latest trends in new home construction and remodeling, as we continue to assess the impacts of our prolonged inventory shortage. And, last-but-not-least, the Florida Realtors Research Team will be unveiling an exciting new service for Florida Realtors members that you won't want to miss! 
This free event will take place on Thursday, January 23, 2020 from 12:30 to 2:30pm in the Oceans Ballroom at the Renaissance Orlando Hotel at SeaWorld. Seating is limited, though, so be sure to arrive on time! There will be box lunches available outside for purchase. So eat, learn, and stay ahead of the curve, with knowledge of what 2020 means for your real estate business!