Florida Realtors Market Update
With Brad O’Connor Ph.D.
For February 2020
TRT: 3m 52 sec
Video Transcription

The latest statistics from Florida Realtors show that existing home sales in the Sunshine State experienced another solid month of growth in February. Closed sales of single-family homes were up year-over-year in 21 of Florida's 22 metro areas, rising by over 9 percent on a statewide basis compared to February of last year. Over in the condo and townhouse category, meanwhile, statewide sales growth was even stronger, rising by nearly 11 percent.
Historically low mortgage interest rates continued to serve as the principal driver of growth in the housing market this February. Freddie Mac, which has been tracking average national mortgage rates since 1971, reported all-time lows this February for both 30- and 15-year fixed-rate loans, checking in at 3.47 percent and 2.97 percent, respectively. 
These lower rates have helped relieve some of the pent-up demand for affordable homes caused by the housing shortage, and they have also aided in a revival of demand in the upper tier of the market, as well. Consequently, price growth has actually accelerated in recent months, including in February. The statewide median sale price for single-family homes in February was $270,000, up 8 percent compared to last year. Over in the condo and townhouse category, meanwhile, the median sale price reached $200,000, up by 6.7 percent year-over-year.
While Florida's housing market in February was strong, I realize that the biggest question is what the future holds over the next few months, given that we and the rest of the world now face the enormous challenge of fighting a global pandemic. The emergence of the coronavirus is a perfect example of what we might call a "black swan" event, which for economists means a very rare, difficult-to-predict event that originates from outside of the economic realm but imposes a massive shock to the economy nonetheless. Most of our traditional forecasting tools will be rather useless in the near term until we can get a better handle on our local, state, and federal government's plans to both combat the virus and shield the economy. 
So while I can't responsibly give you a reliable forecast of where we are headed right at this moment, I can at least share some silver linings here the good news is that we are coming into this situation with a fairly strong economy and a largely healthy financial sector, at least compared to the end of last cycle, when the poor health of the financial sector was actually a major cause of all of our woes. As for the housing market in particular, we are in a position where housing is in relatively short supply and remains a necessity for people, so that should help put a floor under any reductions in housing demand we might see. And we also expect we'll continue to see very attractive mortgage rates over the next several months. So if we can beat this pandemic sooner than later, the housing market should, in theory, come through in pretty good shape. But we have to remain aware that the length of time this pandemic will persist is still very much up in the air as of right now.
In the meantime, we here at your Florida Realtors research department remain dedicated to providing you with the data and tools you need to make important business decisions and serve as your clients' go-to market expert. We will continue to provide you with the best residential market data available, which you can access through our traditional reports found on floridarealtors.org, or through our new interactive tool, SunStats, which you can find at sunstats.floridarealtors.org. Good health, everyone.