2026 Forecast: Florida Housing Still Going Strong

Tampa-based Rae Anna Conforti has seen the housing market shift dramatically since the 2024 hurricanes. “Inventory is up in Pinellas County, which got hit hard, and sales prices are down,” says the sales associate with RE/MAX Alliance Group. “So, it’s a great opportunity for buyers.”

Over a year later, many of her clients are still rebuilding or waiting for permits to repair damaged homes. “Some are living in their homes without furniture, and others are still renting,” she says. “It’s a big change from before the storms.” Even so, she sees business as promising. “I’m not going to say it’s outstanding, but it’s steady,” says Conforti, who specializes in single-family and condo sales in Tampa, St. Petersburg and Clearwater. “If interest rates keep coming down, it’ll be a good winter season—and hopefully we’ll get snowbirds coming back.”

Across Florida, the housing market is expected to look more balanced—with modest price appreciation, growing inventory and better buying opportunities as mortgage rates hover around 6%.

Although agents like Conforti are seeing buyers return to storm-damaged areas, the bigger picture is one of resilience. Real estate economist Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., Walker Family Chair of Real Estate at the University of Mississippi, says that hurricanes rarely leave a lasting mark on Florida’s housing market.

“People’s lives are absolutely affected in the short term,” Johnson says. “But in terms of harming Florida’s real estate market, the vote is in: Hurricanes have never affected the state long term.” The proof, he says, is in steady population growth. “We’ve had significant hurricane action, yet [migration] into Florida is running in the double digits in several metro areas,” he says. “People want to be near the water, enjoy the warm weather year-round and take advantage of Florida’s business opportunities [coupled with] no state income tax.”

That sustained influx of people from other states continues to drive prices and demand despite temporary slowdowns from major storms. “You might see a short-term spike in rents or a lag in building, but Florida’s popularity makes those effects fade quickly,” Johnson adds.

Steady on the homefront

Dr. Brad O’Connor, Ph.D., chief economist for Florida Realtors®, believes that many of the factors shaping the state’s economy in 2026 are rooted in national trends rather than local policy. “It’s interesting because it’s these things that are affecting the entire country at a macroeconomic level, such as mortgage rates impacting both existing homes and new construction,” he says.

Heading into the new year, O’Connor is optimistic. “We continue to be a business-friendly state and are consistently ranked as such by multiple publications,” he says. “On Oct. 1, 2025, Florida finally eliminated the commercial lease tax, which is something Florida Realtors® advocated for over many years. Florida had been the only state charging sales tax on business space rented to operate. That’s gone now, which should help business and drive our economy.”

O’Connor also sees emerging economic strengths beyond Florida’s traditional industries. “The Space Coast is being revived, and as a result many tech jobs are coming into the state,” he says. “Together with finance jobs brought down here during the pandemic, that can form a core where we create avenues in two areas where Florida wasn’t a major player until recently—on top of tourism, shipping and defense.”

In terms of the housing market, O’Connor anticipates a relatively stable 2026. “Based on what I can see right now, especially with mortgage rates, I’m expecting somewhat the same market as 2025 but perhaps a little better,” he says. “If mortgage rates stay between 6% and 6.5%, we’ll have a much better spring buying season than last year.”

He believes prices will hold steady overall, with modest variations depending on inventory. “Maybe locally that would be different,” he says, “but overall for the state I see prices fairly flat, possibly deteriorating a little in areas that have an abundance of inventory, but not by a huge percentage.”

O’Connor expects sales to smooth out in 2026 and largely match 2025 levels. “If rates go lower and stay there—and there are reasons to think they could—I see it as our first year where we actually have improved sales growth. We could be turning the corner.”

Buyers take the lead

Signs of stabilization in Florida echo what’s happening nationally, according to Logan Mohtashami, lead analyst for HousingWire.

“With Florida, it’s much different because the single-family market is dealing with insurance issues, and the condo sector has its own stressors,” Mohtashami says. “Inventory was growing rapidly in early 2025, but by spring it peaked and started to decline. That tells me this isn’t a bubble situation—there aren’t many distressed sellers—but affordability, insurance costs and slower migration have definitely cooled demand.”

Mohtashami now sees Florida as a buyer’s market. “Unlike many parts of the country, Florida’s inventory has come back to healthy levels,” he says. “Buyers have a seat at the table again, and properly priced homes are still moving. The key for agents is making sure sellers stay realistic.”

Even with prices softening, Mohtashami doesn’t expect a crash. “Florida has had some price corrections that made homes more affordable,” he says. “Rates staying in the low-6% range could give the market another lift. Builders are still moving product, and seller concessions help keep homes more competitive.” He also expects adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) to play a larger role in 2026. “If the Federal Reserve cuts rates again, we could see ARMs in the mid-5% range,” he says. “That could make 2026 the year of ARMs.”

Migration momentum

Migration patterns, meanwhile, look different than they did a few years ago. “High rates and affordability have been slowing population growth and job creation, but we’re still seeing people move here from other states—just not at the pace we saw in 2022,” O’Connor says. “New Yorkers can still afford it down here, but we’re also seeing more people from out West than before COVID—and not just from California. We’re getting buyers from mountain states like Colorado and Washington, and even a net increase from places like Tennessee and Texas. That’s a positive sign.”

  Even so, Mohtashami points out that overall migration has slowed compared to the pre-pandemic surge. “Florida had such a booming period of migration and construction, but that’s cooled down,” he says. “The state [remains] a buyer’s market because there’s plenty of supply, and buyers generally have the advantage over sellers.”

He cites several factors shaping affordability. “Leaders are even talking about reducing or eliminating property taxes to make housing more affordable,” Mohtashami says. “That would help offset insurance costs for homeowners. But there are still a lot of question marks, especially around how FEMA will operate and how buyers will feel about living in parts of West Florida with high insurance rates.”

Florida’s housing trends, Mohtashami says, reflect a broader cooling that began in mid-2025. “We started seeing inventory slowing down in June, which is rare, and that decline carried into August,” he says. “Now, purchase data is growing week over week. That’s a positive sign for Florida because the state plays such a big role in the national housing economy.”

Spotting new opportunities

For real estate professionals, Mohtashami says the challenge in 2026 will be guiding sellers toward realistic pricing and timely concessions. “Agents who know their local data best can do well in this kind of market,” he says. “Get as much live data as you can and know what’s happening in your ZIP Codes. What we’re seeing is that agents need to use live, current numbers—not data that’s two or three months old—to help bring sellers back in line with reality.”

Mohtashami sees the shift toward a buyer’s market testing agents’ skills in ways not seen since before the boom. “A lot of agents haven’t worked in a market like this for a while,” he says. “Getting sellers on board with what buyers want is the challenge for 2026.”

O’Connor agrees that 2026 will demand sharper awareness and adaptability from real estate professionals. “Even a small sliver of interest rate improvement can unlock a lot of people,” he says. “Consumer finances overall seem solid. Agents who stay in touch with past clients who hesitated to buy last year will find renewed interest as affordability improves. I feel bad for [agents] who came into the industry during 2021-2022 because that wasn’t an ordinary situation. That’s one reason why Florida Realtors® offers continuing education courses. In 2021, you could simply list a property, and it would sell in five seconds regardless of how you marketed it. Now is the time to hone your craft and show off your skills as we get back into a much more normal market situation.”

He believes steady economic growth is creating subtle, yet real opportunities. “Florida’s economy remains strong,” O’Connor says. “We’ve seen job creation slow from the breakneck pace right after the pandemic, but it’s still healthy. Migration and mortgage rates are the two biggest factors shaping the market in 2026, and both are trending in a more favorable direction. Real estate professionals will continue to face a lot of the same challenges we had in 2025, but I feel we’ve seen the bottom.”

Johnson sees resilience, not risk, in Florida’s housing picture. “You might see temporary slowdowns, but those fade quickly,” he says. “The state’s long-term fundamentals—population growth, strong employment and desirable climate—keep it moving forward.” He notes that hurricanes, while destructive, tend to strengthen housing demand over time. “People rebuild better, and the demand for construction and materials fuels local economies,” Johnson says. “Florida always bounces back.”

Buyers are still moving from higher-cost states, Mohtashami reiterates, and sellers are in a better financial position than they were during the housing bubble. “It’s encouraging to see life return to the market as rates move closer to 6%. It’s still a buyer’s market, prices are soft and buyers can take advantage of that—especially if the Fed keeps trimming rates and we see growth in ARM lending.”

Florida’s housing market in 2026 looks promising. Johnson sees continued resilience. O’Connor points to a steady economy with potential for growth. And Mohtashami says it will likely be a market that rewards data-driven professionals who can keep pace with shifting conditions. #

Leslie C. Stone is a Vero Beach-based freelance writer.