Florida’s Growth Forecast Signals Steady Demand
Florida’s housing market remains positioned for long-term demand, with population growth and early signs of rising home sales, Florida Realtors chief economist said.
ORLANDO, Fla. – Florida’s population surge is expected to continue through the end of the decade, with state economists projecting the equivalent of a new mid-sized city added every year – and housing will need to keep pace.
Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor said new projections from the state’s Demographic Estimating Conference reinforce why housing demand remains resilient across the state, even amid affordability pressures.
“Population growth is the No. 1 driver of real estate demand, and these data-driven projections reflect the fact that Florida’s housing market remains primed for long-term growth,” O’Connor said.
The state’s Demographic Estimating Conference met Dec. 3 to adopt a new population forecast, revising Florida’s official April 1, 2025, count to 23,379,261 people, an increase of 20,731 over the prior estimate.
From April 1, 2026, through April 1, 2030, Florida is expected to add an average of 305,953 net new residents per year – about 838 a day – for an annual growth rate of 1.28%. That pace is comparable to adding a population larger than St. Petersburg, but smaller than Orlando, every year.
For Realtors®, the forecast underscores continued long-term demand for both for-sale and rental housing, particularly in fast-growing metros and retiree destinations. While the state continues to record more deaths than births, newcomers moving to Florida more than make up the difference, with migration remaining the primary driver of growth.
O’Connor said recent market activity already reflects that underlying demand beginning to surface.
“There is an enormous amount of latent housing demand just waiting to be unlocked,” he said. “Since interest rates started declining in August, we’ve seen a multi-month streak of rising home sales for the first time since 2021.”
The report also indicates that Florida’s growth, while strong, is expected to gradually slow. Year-over-year population gains are projected to ease each year, dropping below 1% for the first time in 2032 as the population ages and the last baby boomers enter retirement.
Even with that deceleration, the overall numbers remain substantial. For brokers and agents, the outlook points to continued opportunities in new construction, move-up purchases, downsizing and second-home buying, with the strongest pressure expected in markets where job growth, amenities and retiree appeal converge.
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