Some Buyers See Downturn as an Opportunity
Nearly 30% of homebuyers say a recession would make them more likely to buy, citing lower rates and less competition despite economic uncertainty.
AUSTIN, Texas — As economic anxiety intensifies, a new survey from Realtor.com reveals that U.S. homebuyers are bracing for a potential recession, but is there a silver lining? While 63.4% of surveyed home shoppers said they expect a recession within the next 12 months, marking one of the highest levels of concern since 2019, nearly 30% indicated that a recession would make them somewhat more likely to purchase a home. This is nearly twice as large as the share who report they'd be less likely to buy a home in a recession (15.8%). The nuanced sentiments signal a unique buying landscape shaped by caution and, on the flip side, opportunity.
"Confidence in the economy has clearly taken a hit amid ongoing headlines around trade, tariffs, and rate uncertainty," said Danielle Hale, chief economist at Realtor.com. "But while concerns are definitely present, some buyers anticipate that a downturn can bring opportunity. Well-prepared buyers who have been waiting on the sidelines are likely motivated by personal and lifestyle needs like growing families, new jobs, or retirements and these considerations can outweigh short term economic uncertainties."
Economic uncertainty isn't stopping everyone
There are heightened fears of a recession. But, for the 29.8% of buyers who remain motivated, and even indicate they could be more likely to buy in a downturn, the potential for lower mortgage rates and less competition amid an economic slowdown serve as key incentives. At the same time, 54.4% said a recession would have no impact on their decision to purchase a home. This is a signal that many buyers are driven more by life circumstances than macroeconomic shifts. Only 15.8% of respondents reported they would be less likely to buy in a recession, reinforcing the idea that the housing market may see continued resilience even in a shaky economic climate.
Barriers to buying: Inventory, budgets and borrowing challenges
While there is a silver lining for many buyers, another aspect of the market brings challenges. Limited for-sale housing inventory continues to be the biggest roadblock for buyers, with 44.3% citing a lack of homes that meet their needs as a major concern. While listing activity has improved compared to last year, total active inventory remains 16.3% below historical norms, limiting choice and dampening momentum.
Budget constraints were reported as a major issue for 36% of surveyed homebuyers, an issue that could intensify in the coming quarters if inflation picks up due to tariffs, or if interest rates remain elevated. Credit-related challenges are also growing. 13.5% of buyers cited poor credit scores as a barrier while 8.2% struggled with mortgage qualification. With lenders tightening standards and student loan changes impacting credit health, the financing landscape may become more difficult for some buyers to navigate.
A less competitive market offers relief for some
The competitive frenzy of recent years appears to be tapering off. Just 7.7% of surveyed buyers identified overbidding as a top concern in the first quarter of 2025, down from 10.4% a year ago. This trend aligns with increased time on market, a moderate rise in listings, and more stable pricing; all of which point to a slower, less stressful home search experience. For buyers able to act amid the uncertainty, today's conditions may offer more negotiating power, more choice, and less pressure than in recent years.
Source: Realtor.com
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