Florida Consumer Confidence Up, Caution Persists
Expectations improved in December, but inflation and labor market uncertainty continued to shape how Floridians view the economy heading into 2026.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer sentiment among Floridians rose modestly in December, increasing 2.4 points to 74.9 from 72.5 in November, according to the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research. National consumer sentiment rose 1.9 points over the month, UF said.
Despite the late-year improvement, Florida’s consumer sentiment declined overall in 2025, ending December well below January levels across demographic groups, said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF. Any confidence gains following the 2024 election faded as policy uncertainty, labor-market softening and persistent inflation weighed on outlooks. While Federal Reserve rate cuts lowered borrowing costs, they were not enough to offset broader economic concerns, he said.
“As the new year begins, while consumer sentiment declined across sociodemographic groups and across all five components of the index over the course of 2025, the economy enters 2026 with economic agents potentially becoming more accustomed to recent policy changes. As policies begin to settle, uncertainty may ease, which could lead to smaller swings in consumer sentiment over the year ahead,” said Sandoval.
Among the five components that make up the index, four increased while one declined.
Floridians’ opinions about current economic conditions were mixed in December. Views of personal financial situations compared with a year ago increased 3.9 points from 64.8 to 68.7. These views varied across sociodemographic groups, with women, people ages 60 and older, and people with an annual income under $50,000 expressing less favorable opinions. In contrast, opinions about whether this is a good time to buy a big-ticket household item, such as a refrigerator or furniture, declined slightly 0.4, from 62.4 to 62.0. These views were also split by demographics, with men and people with an annual income over $50,000 expressing more favorable opinions.
Floridians’ expectations about future economic conditions improved in December, with all three forward-looking components increasing. Expectations of personal finances a year from now rose 3.2 points from 85.9 to 89.1. Expectations regarding U.S. economic conditions over the next year increased 1.1 points from 75.5 to 76.6. Meanwhile, expectations of U.S. economic conditions over the next five years rose 3.9 points from 74.0 to 77.9, representing one of the largest increases among the index components this month, alongside views of current personal finances. These positive expectations were shared by most Floridians, although women, people younger than 60, and people with an annual income under $50,000 expressed more pessimistic views regarding the national economic outlook over the next year.
Sandoval said the outlook still hinges on how inflation and the labor market evolve.
“Looking ahead, it will be important to continue monitoring inflation, which remains above the Fed’s 2% target, as well as labor market conditions, as both will influence the Fed’s future policy decisions. Tracking consumer sentiment will help assess how Floridians perceive their financial situation and the broader economy as we move into 2026,” Sandoval said.
Methodology
Conducted Nov.1-Dec.19, the UF study reflects the responses of 251 individuals who were reached on cellphones representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
Data are weighted based on Florida county of residence, age group and sex to ensure representativeness of the Florida population. The population figures used for weighting (targets) are obtained from the Population Program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), which produces the official population estimates for the state of Florida. Phone data quality is maintained by monitoring and reviewing interviews and preventing duplicate records.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence as in that year. The lowest index possible is 2, and the highest is 150.
Source: UF
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