Homebuilders turn cautious on second-half outlook
Most executives expect a flat second half as rising construction costs and cautious speculative building shape the new-home outlook.
Homebuilding executives have grown markedly more guarded at the midpoint of 2026, based on a poll of 127 senior leaders from Builder Advisor Group and Avila Real Estate Capital.
Optimism has fallen since winter, dropping from 45% to 24%, while the share expecting weaker conditions increased from 12% to 38%. Looking ahead, most anticipate conditions to remain flat through the second half of the year.
Two concerns dominate the outlook. Buyer demand uncertainty ranks as the top obstacle at 42%, and construction costs are expected to climb for 57% of respondents.
Home prices are widely seen as flat or falling. Many builders are holding or reducing speculative starts to align inventory with actual buyer activity.
Asked what would brighten prospects, 58% cited lower interest and mortgage rates and 43% pointed to greater political and economic stability.
Source: HousingWire (08/20/26) Baker, Gina
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