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NAR Study: A Lack of Affordable Housing Slows Job Growth

During the recession, “more jobs” was cited as the solution for “more home sales.” But now “home prices” appear to impact employment in some metros. NAR’s study found that areas with unaffordable home prices are starting to see a decline in job growth.

WASHINGTON – In metro areas where affordability has worsened over the last five years, job growth has also declined, according to a new study from the National Association of Realtors® (NAR).

The NAR report, “Home Affordability Index Ranking and Payroll Job Growth,” found that affordability rankings declined in 81 metro areas, 34 of which saw non-farm job growth fall faster in the third quarter of 2019 than the national rate over the previous five years. To calculate results, NAR’s examined 174 metro areas and ranked them based on affordability, analyzed the shift in affordability ranking, and considered the pace of non-farm payroll job growth in 2019 Q3 compared to average job growth from 2014 to 2018.

Those 81 metro areas need more housing inventory to boost affordability, according to Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist

“Job growth has slowed in these areas in part because limited supply is making homes less affordable,” Yung says. “As inventory continues to decline and affordability worsens, workers, businesses and companies are less incentivized to do business in these areas.”

Boise, Idaho, experienced the largest drop in affordability ranking (108th in 2014 and 153rd in 2019 Q3). From 2014 to 2019 Q3, the median sales price of single-family homes in Boise increased 75% – four times the growth rate in median family income of 18%. With a steep decline in affordability, non-farm payroll employment growth slowed roughly 0.8% in 2019 Q3 from average growth during 2014 to 2018 (3.2% from 3.9%).

Tampa has also seen a rapid decline in affordability (98th in 2014; 133rd in 2019 Q3). During this period, median single-family home prices jumped 58% – three times the growth of median family income of 19%. As affordability declined, Tampa’s job growth slowed by 0.8 percentage points (2.8% vs. 2.0%).

Nashville, Tenn., experienced a similar drop in affordability ranking (105th in 2014; 126th in 2019 Q3). Median single-family sales prices increased 53% – nearly double the region’s median family income growth (23%). As affordability worsened, the pace of job growth was cut in half (1.9% vs 3.7%).

Even metro areas in the relatively affordable Midwest region were not immune to ranking declines.  Grand Rapids, Mich. (37th in 2014 to 60th in 2019 Q3); Louisville, Ky. (51st to 62nd), Indianapolis, Ind. (46th to 64th); and Columbus, Ohio (57th to 80th) all experienced drops.

San Jose-Sunnyvale-Sta. Clara, Calif., is the least affordable U.S. metro region, while Anaheim-Sta. Ana-Irvine, Calif. (173rd); Los-Angeles-Long Beach Glendale, Calif. (172nd), San Francisco-Oakland (171st), and San Diego-Carlsbad (170th) remain among the nation’s most unaffordable markets.

There was no notable shift for Seattle. (164th in 2014; 164th in 2019 Q3) and Denver, Colo. (159th, 158th). In Austin, Texas, affordability ranking improved, but because it’s already relatively unaffordable, the pace of job creation has slowed as well (134th, 122nd, -1.8%).

Yun says worsening affordability and inventory conditions could leave some of the nation’s previously fast-growing metro areas unable to sustain job and economic growth.

“Even fast-growing markets could be hurt and unable to further expand because of weakening affordability conditions,” he says. “We must improve affordability by building more homes in line with local job market growth.”

Metros in order of affordability rank in 2019 Q3

The following metros had strong job growth from 2014 to 2018 and also a shift in affordability ranking (five or more steps). They’re also now experiencing slower job creation (percentage point difference):

  • Grand Rapids-Wyoming, Mich. (60th in 2019 Q3 from 37th in 2014 -1.7%)
  • Louisville/Jefferson County, Ky.-Ind. (62nd from 51st, -0.9%)
  • Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, Ind. (64th from 46th, -0.9%)
  • Chattanooga, Ga. (70th from 58th, -0.3%)
  • Columbus, Ohio (80th from 57th, -1.0%)
  • Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, Ga. (91st from 73rd, -1.1%)
  • Spartanburg, S.C. (96th from 83rd, -0.4%)
  • Pensacola, Ferry Pass-Brent, Fla. (111th from 84th, -1.9%)
  • Raleigh, N.C. (112th from 90th, -0.8%)
  • Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond, Fla. (125th from 94th, -1.5%)
  • Nashville-Davidson-Murfreesboro-Franklin, Tenn. (126th from 105th, -1.8%)
  • Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, Fla. (133rd from 98th, -0.8%)
  • Lakeland-Winter Haven, Fla. (134th from 89th, -1.0%)
  • Durham-Chapel Hill, N.C. (137th from 111th, -1.3%)
  • Jacksonville, Fla. (140th from 117th, -0.8%)
  • Salt Lake City, Utah (151st from 146th, -0.4%)
  • Boise City-Nampa, Idaho (153rd from 108th, -0.8%)
  • Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, Nev. (159th from 143rd, -1.4%)
  • Yakima, Wash. (160th from 145th, -0.6%)
  • Eugene, Ore. (162nd from 155th, -1.9%)
  • Salem, Ore. (163rd from 147th, -1.5%)

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