Case-Shiller Home Prices: ‘Forceful Deceleration’
The national Home Price index reported a 15.8% annual gain in July, down from 18.1% in June – the largest price deceleration in the history of the index.
NEW YORK – S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) released its July report on U.S. home prices, finding that home price gains decelerated across the United States at the fastest pace in more than 27 years of history.
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index, which covers all nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 15.8% annual gain in July, down from 18.1% in the previous month. The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 14.9%, down from 17.4% the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 16.1% year-over-year gain, down from 18.7% the previous month.
Florida cities saw less of a price deceleration. Tampa and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in July. Tampa led the way with a 31.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Miami in second with a 31.7% increase.
All 20 cities reported lower price increases in the year ending July 2022 versus the year ending June 2022.
“Although U.S. housing prices remain substantially above their year-ago levels, July’s report reflects a forceful deceleration,” says Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. “For example, while the National Composite Index rose by 15.8% in the 12 months ended July 2022, its year-over-year price rise in June was 18.1%. The -2.3% difference between those two monthly rates of gain is the largest deceleration in the history of the index.”
Lazzara says the 10-year and 20-year indexes showed similar results. The 10-year was up 14.9% in July vs. 17.4% in June and the 20-City Composite was up 16.1% in July vs. 18.7% in June.
On a month-over-month basis, all three composites declined in July.
July’s year-over-year price change was positive for each one of the 20 cities with a median gain of 15.0%, but in every case, July’s gain was less than June’s,” says Lazzara. “Prices declined in 12 cities on a month-to-month basis. Tampa (up 31.8%) narrowly edged Miami (up 31.7%) to remain at the top of the league table for the fifth consecutive month, with Dallas (up 24.7%) holding on to third place.
As has been the case for the last several months, price growth was strongest in the Southeast (up 27.5%) and South (up 26.9%).”
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a -0.3% month-over-month decrease in July, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites both posted decreases of -0.8%.
After seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of -0.2%, and the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of -0.5% and -0.4%, respectively.
In July, only 7 cities reported increases before and after seasonal adjustments.
“As the Federal Reserve continues to move interest rates upward, mortgage financing has become more expensive, a process that continues to this day,” adds Lazzara. “Given the prospects for a more challenging macroeconomic environment, home prices may well continue to decelerate.”
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