Researchers Maintain Hurricane Season Prediction

FORT COLLINS, Co. — Colorado State University researchers, in an update to their hurricane season outlook, said Wednesday that the forecast remains the same: You can expect an estimated 17 named storms this year, with nine of them becoming hurricanes.

Of the nine predicted hurricanes, CSU researchers believe four could hit major hurricane strength, which means achieving sustained winds of at least 111 mph.

Above-average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea is primarily what’s to blame for the higher-than-normal expected number of hurricanes as a main fuel source for intense storms is warm ocean water. However, CSU researchers also noted “more uncertainty” with the June forecast due to the climate signals – the sea-surface temperatures – being somewhat weaker this year than last.

“So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2021,” Phil Klotzbach, a CSU senior research scientist, said in a statement. “While the average of our analog seasons had above-average levels of activity, the relatively large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the uncertainty associated with this outlook.”

This year’s forecast is tamer than 2024’s forecast when CSU researchers predicted an “extremely active” season with 11 hurricanes. Temperatures in the Atlantic were very hot in June of last year at 1.5 degrees Celsius warmer than normal.

But since January of this year, winds have been blowing across the Atlantic fairly strongly, Klotzbach said, which means the water won’t be as hot.

Klotzbach compared it to exiting a swimming pool on a windy day: “You’re cold and in a hurry because of all the evaporational cooling,” he said.

The consensus about this year’s forecast generally appears to be similar, Klotzbach said. CSU looks at other entities’ predictions too, and most tend to be at or above average, according to the seasonal hurricane predictions data made in conjunction with Barcelona Supercomputing Center.

“On average most groups are (predicting) somewhere between eight and nine hurricanes,” Klotzbach said. “There’s really nobody going super gangbusters.”

And even though hurricane season has already begun, the major hurricanes are not likely to hit until the period between August and October, Klotzbach said.

CSU first released its hurricane season forecast in April and will again release updates in July and August. Klotzbach emphasized how the forecasts are informational tools and not meant to teach people exactly how to prepare.

“The forecast could be woefully wrong, maybe it’s a super quiet season. but even if we can forecast exactly the number of storms, we can’t tell you where they’re going to go,” he said.

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