Florida Housing Enters 2026 on Firmer Ground
Florida Realtors chief economist sees easing rates steadying Fla.’s market; NAR deputy chief economist cites national affordability pressures for first-time buyers.
ORLANDO, Fla. — As Realtors look ahead to 2026, early data shows Florida’s housing market gaining stability, even as affordability and local factors remain key drivers.
Economists point to easing mortgage rates, improving sales and slowing inventory growth as signs the market is adjusting, with different effects for different buyers, according to Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor and National Association of Realtors® Deputy Chief Economist Dr. Jessica Lautz.
O’Connor and Lautz point to mortgage rates as the first place to look when explaining the market’s recent movement. A deeper look at these trends will be featured during Florida Real Estate Trends at 12:30 on Friday, Jan. 9, during the 2026 Florida Realtors Mid-Winter Business Meetings.
Small rate moves are having outsized effects
Mortgage rates began easing midway through 2025, falling from an average near 6.8% earlier in the year to about 6.2% more recently. While the decline may appear modest, it has been enough to unlock pent-up demand in Florida, O’Connor said.
Florida’s monthly sales counts are now rising consistently for the first time since rates began climbing in 2022. As sales have picked up, time on market has begun to level out, helping absorb inventory more efficiently.
“That small decline was enough to unlock a good amount of pent-up housing demand,” O’Connor said.
What’s changing as rates ease:
- Sales are rising consistently for the first time since 2022
- Time on market is leveling out
- Inventory growth has slowed as listings are absorbed
Improvement is broad-based across the state
Seasonality often complicates statewide housing analysis, with some local markets carrying more weight at certain times of year. However, O’Connor said the recent improvement has been visible across much of the state, rather than concentrated in a handful of seasonal markets.
That broad-based momentum supports a steadier outlook heading into the warmer months.
“We don’t see any reason to be pessimistic about the housing market’s performance in 2026,” O’Connor said. “Our baseline view is that we’ll continue to see improvement in sales numbers into the spring buying season.”
Affordability continues to divide the market nationally
While migration and job growth remain important influences, affordability remains the dominant factor shaping Florida’s housing markets.'
National trends help explain why. According to Lautz, easing mortgage rates and slightly higher inventory are improving conditions, but challenges persist, particularly for first-time buyers.
First-time buyers account for about 21% of purchases nationally, well below historical norms, while equity-rich homeowners remain better positioned to move.
“First-time buyers are still struggling, while equity-flush homeowners are able to make housing trades,” Lautz said.
How buyer conditions differ:
- First-time buyers remain constrained by affordability
- Equity-rich homeowners have more flexibility
- Market activity reflects this growing divide
Planning for two possible paths in 2026
Looking ahead, O’Connor encourages Realtors to plan for two realistic scenarios.
Two rate paths to watch:
- Rates level out: Recent conditions continue into 2026
- Rates ease further: Sales momentum strengthens and price growth may turn slightly positive
“A cautiously optimistic forecast would have the typical 30-year fixed rate at 6% for much of 2026,” O’Connor said. “That would give us even more of a bump than we’ve already had in recent months, and home price growth might even turn slightly positive if that happens.”
Where Realtors can go deeper
These trends, from rates and affordability to sales, inventory, migration and job growth, will be explored in greater detail during Florida Real Estate Trends, the annual economic presentation from Florida Realtors.
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