Florida Consumer Sentiment Climbs Again

GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer sentiment among Floridians increased for the second consecutive month in June, rising 3.1 points to 84.1 from a revised figure of 81 in May. National consumer sentiment also rose sharply, up 8.5 points.

“This marks the second straight month in which all five components of the index increased. While both current conditions and future expectations improved in June, the gain in sentiment is being driven more by Floridians’ assessments of their personal finances. In fact, views of personal finances compared with a year ago have steadily improved since the presidential election in November. In contrast, expectations about future economic conditions remain below January’s highs, suggesting that Floridians remain cautious as ongoing uncertainty, especially around trade policy, continues to cloud the outlook,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at UF’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.

All five components of the index improved this month.

Floridians’ views on current economic conditions strengthened further in June. Opinions of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago rose 5.6 points, from 72 to 77.6, the largest gain among all components this month. Similarly, opinions on whether now is a good time to buy a big-ticket household item, such as a refrigerator or furniture, increased 3.7 points from 73.9 to 77.6. These more positive views were broadly shared across sociodemographic groups, except for people younger than 60, who reported more negative views on their spending intentions. 

Expectations about future economic conditions also improved. Expectations of personal finances a year from now rose 2 points from 90.7 to 92.7. Meanwhile, expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next year rose 2.9 points from 80.8 to 83.7. Similarly, views on U.S. economic conditions over the next five years increased 1.4 points from 87.5 to 88.9. These optimistic future outlooks were broadly shared across sociodemographic groups, with the exception of people with an annual income under $50,000, who consistently reported more negative views across all three components.

The economy has remained stable following the first three months of tariff implementation. Labor market conditions remain strong, with the unemployment rate holding at historically low levels. Inflation has stayed modest, though slightly above the Fed’s 2% target in recent months. As a result, the Fed held interest rates steady for the fourth consecutive meeting in June, signaling that the effects of tariffs on inflation remain uncertain. Meanwhile, the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis show weaker consumer spending in May, raising concerns that continued policy uncertainty may be starting to affect actual household spending.

“New tariff threats continue to surface, including a recent announcement about ending trade talks with Canada. While the back-and-forth nature of trade policy may be making consumers somewhat less sensitive to each announcement, the continued uncertainty could still weigh on confidence,” said Sandoval.

“Looking ahead, even though consumers are feeling somewhat more optimistic and turmoil in the Middle East has not yet impacted sentiment, overall confidence remains below the levels seen at the start of the year. It will be important to continue monitoring sentiment in the months ahead to better understand how persistent inflation, trade tensions, and global instability may shape consumer expectations and behavior,” Sandoval added.

Conducted May 1 to June 26, the UF study reflects the responses of 213 individuals who were reached on cellphones and 267 individuals reached through an online panel, a total of 480 individuals, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.

Data are weighted based on Florida county of residence, age group, and sex to ensure representativeness of the Florida population. The population figures used for weighting (targets) are obtained from the Population Program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), which produces the official population estimates for the state of Florida. Phone data quality is maintained by monitoring and reviewing interviews and prevention of duplicate records. Online data quality is maintained by enabling and reviewing Bot and Fraud detection, elimination of “short time” completes, and preventing the survey from appearing in web search results.

The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is 2, and the highest is 150.

Source: University of Florida

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