Florida housing market shows broader signs of strength

Florida’s housing market is moving forward again, with sales rising and stronger activity showing up across the state.

That was the broad message from Florida Realtors® Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor during the housing market update Thursday at the Florida Realtors Convention & Trade Expo.

After three years of declining sales, Florida has now recorded 11 consecutive months of year-over-year increases in closed sales through July. New pending sales, which can offer an earlier look at buyer activity, have risen year over year for 12 straight months.

“This is not a boom,” O’Connor said, “but it’s very important because we had three straight years of falling sales, and now we have things going in a positive direction.”

For Realtors®, the statewide numbers tell only part of the story. O’Connor highlighted several trends shaping the market right now:

• Inventory is shifting. Active listings are down from a year ago across Florida, and single-family supply is now roughly in balanced-market territory statewide. O’Connor said current inventory remains well below 2008 levels, while condo and townhouse inventory remains more elevated than single-family inventory.
• Condos remain a distinct part of the market. Condo-townhouse inventory remains more elevated than single-family inventory, and condos are taking longer to go under contract, he said. At the same time, condo sales have posted stronger year-over-year growth than single-family sales so far this year.
• Higher-priced sales are contributing more growth. Year-to-date sales between $500,000 and $1 million were up 7%, while sales of $1 million or more were up 22.4%. O’Connor said luxury-market growth is occurring across Florida, not only in South Florida.
• Florida continues to attract newcomers. Driver’s-license exchange data remain above pre-pandemic levels, and O’Connor said recent numbers show migration beginning to trend higher again.

Mortgage rates remain an important part of the affordability equation, but O’Connor said the continued sales gains suggest something else is happening as well: Buyers and sellers who postponed moves are beginning to move forward.

“There are still people who want to buy and need to buy a home,” he said.

Looking ahead, O’Connor said the market does not necessarily need a dramatic drop in mortgage rates to make progress. Incomes have continued to rise, and if home prices and rates remain relatively stable, affordability can gradually improve and bring more buyers back into the market over time.

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