Study finds an advantage to buying sooner
A study found buying sooner beat waiting two years in 74% of Florida scenarios, though it excludes several major homeownership costs.
Lower mortgage rates do not always make a home less expensive, particularly when prices rise while buyers wait.
In Florida, buying immediately produced a better financial outcome than waiting two years in 74% of the historical scenarios analyzed by A&D Mortgage. That was the highest share in the country, tied with California. Nationwide, buying right away came out ahead in 61% of the comparisons.
The study, “Does the Perfect Time to Buy Exist?,” compared home purchases across all 50 states and Washington, D.C., from 2000 through 2022. Researchers examined what buyers would have paid by purchasing in a given year versus waiting two years under the market conditions that followed.
The findings challenge the idea that buyers should base their decision primarily on mortgage rates.
“Mortgage rates are only one part of the affordability equation,” the report said.
Home prices, income and the pace at which buyers build savings can change the calculation. In Florida, long-term home-price growth frequently meant buyers faced higher purchase prices after waiting, even when mortgage rates declined or they accumulated a larger down payment.
For buyers weighing whether to purchase or wait, the results add historical context but no clear answer for today. Market conditions and individual finances can produce a different outcome.
The study’s limitations include:
- It is not a forecast. The analysis ends in 2022 and does not measure current or future market conditions.
- It leaves out major housing expenses. Property taxes, homeowners insurance, maintenance and association fees were not included. Those costs can change the affordability picture in Florida.
- It excludes rent and ownership gains. The calculations do not include rent paid while waiting or the equity and appreciation an owner might accumulate.
- Its assumptions will not fit everyone. The model assumes a 15% down payment and that buyers who wait save 10% of median household income each year.
- Statewide results cannot capture every market. Prices, insurance costs and inventory can differ considerably among Florida communities.
The takeaway is not that buying immediately is always better. It is that waiting carries its own financial risks, and a lower future mortgage rate does not guarantee a less expensive home purchase.
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