Florida Economy Set to Outperform Nation in 2026
The Florida Chamber Foundation’s 2026 outlook points to stabilizing home prices and improving sales as the housing market adjusts after rapid growth.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Florida’s economy is expected to continue outperforming the nation in 2026, even as growth moderates from the rapid pace of recent years, according to a new outlook from the Florida Chamber Foundation.
The 2026 Florida Economic Outlook Report, released during the Florida Chamber Foundation’s 2026 Economic Outlook & Jobs Summit, offers a data-driven assessment of current conditions and emerging trends shaping Florida’s long-term economic competitiveness. The report projects continued expansion across major economic indicators, with Florida once again positioned to exceed national performance.
Among the guest speakers at the summit was Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor, who discussed recent housing trends and the role mortgage rates play in buyer demand.
Read the 2026 Florida Economic Outlook Report
According to the report, Florida's economic growth has outpaced the nation by an average of 2.3 percentage points over the past four years and is expected to exceed national GDP growth again in 2026. Florida's unemployment rate has remained below the national rate since September 2020 and is projected to range between 4.2 percent and 4.3 percent in 2026.
The data also points to a period of adjustment in the housing market following years of rapid growth. Median single-family home listing prices are stabilizing in Florida, and sales are picking up after a period of high prices and slow activity. These shifts also point to an expected market normalization in 2026.
"Florida is entering 2026 from a position of strength," said Sheridan Morby, senior research economist of the Florida Chamber Foundation. "The Florida Chamber Foundation's data show sustained outperformance of the national trends, a resilient labor market, and a period of normalization following several years of rapid growth. Slower growth does not signal concerns. It reflects a stabilizing economy that is built for long-term success."
Looking ahead to 2026, the Florida Chamber Foundation expects Florida to continue exceed national economic performance, though by a narrower margin than in recent years. Cooling, but still positive, migration and a changing national economic environment are expected to lead to moderate growth. The report emphasizes that this moderation reflects stabilizing population trends and a continued building of Florida's long-term economic foundation.
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