U.S. Confidence Up, Inflation Fears Climb
Consumers across the nation reported a slight lift in sentiment, but rising gas prices and higher inflation expectations suggest growing concern about everyday costs.
WASHINGTON — U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly edged up in March, but households remained downbeat on the labor market and anticipated higher inflation over the next 12 months amid a surge in gasoline prices and continued tariff pass-through.
That labor market apprehension was underscored by the other data on Tuesday showing fewer job openings in February and hiring tumbling to a six-year low. Economists say lingering uncertainty caused by President Donald Trump's trade and immigration policies has undercut demand for and supply of workers, hampering the labor market. They saw a downside risk from the month-long U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, which has sent global oil prices surging more than 50%, and the national average retail gasoline price topping $4 a gallon for the first time in more than three years.
"This is not a good omen for the health and vitality of the labor market," said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. "Companies have grown more cautious as the price of gasoline has risen over a dollar a gallon since the war began, and consumers have become much less confident."
The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index increased 0.8 point to 91.8 this month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index at 88.0.
Despite the rise in the index, increasing cost pressures because of tariffs and spiking oil prices were evident in the survey. Consumers' median 12-month inflation expectations jumped to 5.2%, the highest since May 2025, from 4.5% in February.
"Comments about prices and the cost of goods suggest that the cost of living remained at the top of consumers' minds," said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board.
Though confidence by political affiliation was little changed, consumers identifying as Republicans remained the most optimistic relative to Independents and Democrats. While there was an uptick in the share of consumers saying jobs were "plentiful," the proportion perceiving employment as "hard to get" was the highest since February 2021. The survey's so-called labor market differential, derived from data on respondents' views on whether jobs are plentiful or hard to get, rose to 5.8% from 5.7% in February. This measure, which correlates to the unemployment rate in the Labor Department's monthly employment report, was around 18.2% a year ago.
The unemployment rate rose to 4.4% in February from 4.3% in January. Though economists expect the jobless rate to have been unchanged in March, they acknowledged the risk of it rising to 4.5%. Opportunities remain scarce for young adults. The Labor Department will release its March payrolls report on Friday.
Job openings, a measure of labor demand, decreased 358,000 to 6.882 million by the last day of February, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, or JOLTS report. Economists had forecast 6.918 million unfilled jobs.
The accommodation and food services sector had 211,000 fewer job openings, while unfilled positions dropped 71,000 in the manufacturing sector.
Trump has defended his sweeping tariffs as necessary to revive the nation's industrial base. The import duties, which Trump pursued under a law meant for use in national emergencies, were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court. Trump, however, swiftly imposed a 10% global tariff and later raised it to 15%.
There were fewer vacancies in the construction, financial activities, wholesale trade sectors as well as in state and local government. The decline in job openings was concentrated among businesses with one to nine employees and those with 50 to 249 employees.
The job openings rate dropped to 4.2% from 4.4% in January.
Hiring decreased by 498,000 positions to 4.849 million last month, the lowest level since March 2020 at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic. Outside the pandemic, hiring was the lowest since August 2014, with a 178,000 plunge in the accommodation and food services sector.
There were sharp decreases in the healthcare and social assistance, professional and business services, and construction industries. The declines aligned with the decrease in nonfarm payrolls in February.
Copyright © 2026 Hawaii Tribune-Herald, All rights reserved.