Florida too hot to handle? Think again

Rising temperatures may be making some parts of the country less appealing, but heat alone isn’t driving people to leave Florida or other fast-growing Sun Belt states, according to new research from Florida Atlantic University.

The study found that while extreme heat can discourage newcomers, it is not causing large numbers of residents to move away. Instead, population shifts are driven far more by job opportunities, housing costs and overall quality of life – factors that continue to fuel growth in Florida despite increasing temperatures.

Researchers analyzed county-level migration patterns using IRS data from 2020 to 2022, along with U.S. Census and federal climate data. Their findings, published in the journal Sustainability, show that hotter conditions tend to slow population growth rather than reverse it.

That distinction is especially relevant for Florida, which remains a top destination for movers even as it experiences rising heat. Like other Sun Belt states, Florida continues to see strong in-migration tied to economic growth and lifestyle appeal.

“As extreme temperature anomalies increase, we don’t see more people leaving,” said Yanmei Li, Ph.D., senior author and an associate professor in the Department of Urban and Regional Planning within FAU’s Charles E. Schmidt College of Science. “Instead, fewer people are moving in – especially to unusually hot areas – slowing population growth. It’s less about people being pushed out and more about places becoming less attractive. At the same time, consistently warm climates still draw people, highlighting a contrast between steady warmth and extreme heat.”

The study also highlights a potential divide among communities. Higher-poverty areas are more likely to see residents leave under heat stress.

Housing also plays a role: People still move to desirable areas even when prices are high, while places with more empty homes or highly educated residents tend to see slower movement.

Another key finding: many people may stay put even as conditions worsen. Financial constraints and other barriers can limit mobility, creating what researchers describe as “trapped populations” in more vulnerable areas.

While the short-term impact of heat on migration remains modest, researchers caution that it could change. As temperatures continue to rise and intersect with factors like housing availability and insurance costs, climate may play a larger role in shaping where people live.

For now, though, Florida’s growth story remains intact – driven less by climate and more by opportunity.

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