Case-Shiller: Prices Still Up – but Not as Much
Jan. prices rose 3.8% compared to 5.6% in Dec., in part due to up-and-down mortgage rates. But Miami ranked No. 1 with a 13.8% jump, with Tampa No. 2 at 10.5%.
NEW YORK – The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices for January 2023 finds that home prices continue to go up, but the rate of those increases continues to slow.
In some metro areas, prices are down, notably West Coast markets that include San Francisco, San Diego, Portland and Seattle.
“2023 began as 2022 had ended, with U.S. home prices falling for the seventh consecutive month,” says Craig J. Lazzara, managing director at S&P DJI. “The national composite declined by 0.5% in January, and now stands 5.1% below its peak in June 2022. On a trailing 12-month basis, the National Composite is only 3.8% ahead of its level in January 2022, a result also reflected in our 10- and 20-City Composites (both up 2.5% year-over-year).”
The Index, which covers nine U.S. census divisions, reported a 3.8% annual price gain in January, down from 5.6% in the previous month.
The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 2.5%, down from 4.4% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted a 2.5% year-over-year gain, down from 4.6% the previous month.
Miami, Tampa and Atlanta again reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in January. Miami led the way with a 13.8% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa in second with a 10.5% increase, and Atlanta ranked third with an 8.4% increase.
Before seasonal adjustment, the U.S. National Index posted a 0.5% month-over-month decrease in January, while the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of 0.5% and 0.6%, respectively.
After seasonal adjustment – a tinkering of the numbers to fairly compare months without their normal seasonal variations – the U.S. National Index posted a month-over-month decrease of 0.2%, while both the 10-City and 20-City Composites posted decreases of 0.4%.
Before seasonal adjustment, 19 cities reported declines in Jan. with one exception: Miami reported an increase of 0.1%. After seasonal adjustment, 15 cities reported declines while Miami, Boston, Charlotte and Cleveland had slight increases.
“Miami (up 13.8% year-over-year) was the best performing city in January, extending its winning streak to six consecutive months,” says Lazzara. “Tampa (up 10.5%) and Atlanta (up 8.4%) continued in second and third place, with Charlotte (up 8.1%) not far behind.”
Lazarra calls continued weakness in some West Coast cities one of the month’s most interesting aspects. “San Diego and Portland joined San Francisco and Seattle in negative year-over-year territory,” he says. “It’s therefore unsurprising that the Southeast (up 10.2%) continues as the country’s strongest region, while the West (down 1.5%) continues as the weakest.
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