Above-Average Hurricane Season Ahead: NOAA
NOAA predicts 13 to 19 named storms in the 2025 hurricane season due to warm ocean waters. Hurricane season begins June 1.
MIAMI – The Atlantic is likely to churn out another above-average hurricane season, thanks to warmer-than-usual ocean waters, according to the latest forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
NOAA predicts that the 2025 hurricane season could see 13 to 19 named storms, six to 10 of which could strengthen into hurricanes and three to five of which could become major storms — Category 3 or higher.
“Everything is in place for an above-average season,” said Ken Graham, director of the National Weather Service, at a press conference Thursday morning.
Graham reminded coastal residents that, no matter the forecast, it only takes one storm to cause a disaster.
“There’s no such thing as Hurricane Justa. There’s no such thing as “just” a Category 1 or “just” a Category 2,” he said. “Even a small one puts lives in danger.”
Hurricane season officially begins June 1 and ends November 30.
This forecast is closely aligned with most of the other leading commercial and academic pre-season forecasts, including Colorado State University, WeatherTiger and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Each call for a range stretching from an average season to a slightly above average season.
NOAA predicted that 2024 could see more storms than ever before, issuing one of its highest-ever forecasts. The agency predicted there could be 17 to 25 named storms, eight to 13 of which could become hurricanes and four to seven that could reach major hurricane status.
Reality was less dire than the extreme end of the forecast, but it was still well within the range NOAA predicted.
Last year, there were 18 named storms. Of those, 11 strengthened into hurricanes and five became major hurricanes — including the massively destructive Hurricanes Helene and Milton and Hurricane Beryl, the earliest Category 5 storm on record.
This year, the United States is facing the upcoming hurricane season with an understaffed National Weather Service — including more than a dozen vacancies in Florida meteorology offices — and confusion within the Federal Emergency Management Agency, which has moved to cut pre- and post-storm aid to local governments.
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