Florida Consumer Confidence Slips Again
UF researchers report Florida’s consumer sentiment fell for a fourth month in October, reflecting weaker views on finances and the national economy.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. -- Consumer sentiment in Florida declined for the fourth consecutive month in October, falling one point to 78.3 from a revised September reading of 79.3. Similarly, national sentiment declined 1.5 points.
“Consumer confidence among Floridians continues to decline, largely due to more pessimistic views about their personal finances and the national economic outlook,” said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
“Expectations about the country’s economy have weakened notably, views of the national economy over the next year have fallen for three straight months, while long-term expectations have declined for four. In fact, these two components have seen the steepest declines since January, signaling that Floridians are increasingly cautious about the national economic outlook,” Sandoval added.
Among the five components that make up the index, four declined and one increased.
Floridians’ views on current economic conditions deteriorated in October. Opinions of personal financial situations now compared with a year ago fell 0.7 points, from 71.6 to 70.9. Views on whether now is a good time to buy a major household item like an appliance, declined 1.6 points, from 71.3 to 69.7. These declines were broadly shared across sociodemographic groups, though women reported more favorable views of their current financial situation, and people under 60 expressed slightly more optimistic views about spending.
Expectations about future economic conditions were mixed. Expectations of personal financial situations a year from now rose 1 point from 87.8 to 88.8, though men reported more pessimistic views. In contrast, expectations about U.S. economic conditions over the next year declined 1.6 points from 83.6 to 82, with most demographic groups reporting more negative views, except for women and people younger than 60, who expressed greater optimism. Similarly, long-term expectations about the national economy over the next five years fell 2.1 points from 82.1 to 80, with declines across most groups, though women again reported more positive views.
“The economic outlook in October brought a mix of relief and renewed pressure for consumers. Inflation remained about one percentage point above the Fed’s 2% target, and one-year-ahead inflation expectations ticked up, keeping price concerns top of mind for many households. At the same time, lower interest rates following the Fed’s second consecutive rate cut, aimed at countering slowing job growth and rising economic uncertainty, may offer some relief by easing borrowing costs. Still, elevated prices are likely to continue to strain household budgets, contributing to the decline in consumer sentiment,” said Sandoval.
“Looking ahead, several factors are likely to continue shaping consumer sentiment. While the Fed cut rates again in October, Chair Jerome Powell has signaled caution about further reductions in December. Trade tensions remain a source of uncertainty, although U.S.–China relations showed tentative improvement, ties with Canada worsened. Additionally, the ongoing government shutdown, which lasted through all of October, has added to the economic uncertainty. If the closure extends further into November, becoming the longest shutdown on record, it may deepen consumer pessimism. Overall, we expect sentiment to remain subdued through the end of the year,” Sandoval added.
Conducted Sept. 1 to Oct. 30, the UF study reflects the responses of 537 individuals who were reached on cellphones and 289 individuals reached through an online panel, a total of 826 individuals, representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
Data are weighted based on Florida county of residence, age group, and sex to ensure representativeness of the Florida population. The population figures used for weighting (targets) are obtained from the Population Program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research, which produces the official population estimates for the state of Florida.
Phone data quality is maintained by monitoring and reviewing interviews and prevention of duplicate records. Online data quality is maintained by enabling and reviewing bot and fraud detection, elimination of “short time” completes, and preventing the survey from appearing in web search results.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is 2, and the highest is 150.
Source: University of Florida
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