Florida Consumers Pull Back on Spending
The dip in March was driven by weaker buying plans and growing concern about the national economy, even as views of personal finances held steady, UF found.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. — Consumer sentiment in Florida declined in March for the first time in 2026, falling one point to 78.1 from a revised figure of 79.1 in February. National consumer sentiment also declined, decreasing 3.3 points over the month, the University of Florida found.
The decline was primarily driven by reduced spending intentions and growing concerns about the national economy, particularly over the next 12 months, said Hector H. Sandoval, director of the Economic Analysis Program at University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research.
At the same time, some indicators remained positive, he said.
“Floridians reported improved views of their current personal financial situation and stronger expectations for their finances over the next year. These mixed signals are consistent with a more uncertain economic environment,” Sandoval said.
The labor market showed signs of cooling in March, with job losses and unemployment rising to 4.4%, while inflation held relatively steady at 2.4%. Meanwhile, higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions are raising concerns about future inflation, prompting the Federal Reserve to hold rates steady as it weighs slowing growth against lingering price pressures.
Among the five components that make up the index, three declined and two increased:
- Personal finances now: Views improved slightly (74.4 to 74.8), though men, people under 60 and those earning under $50,000 were more pessimistic.
- Buying conditions: Opinions on whether it’s a good time to purchase major household items, such as a refrigerator or furniture, fell sharply (68.6 to 64.8), with declines across all groups.
- Personal finances ahead: Expectations for the next year rose modestly (90 to 91.1) but were weaker among men and higher-income households (above $50,000).
- U.S. economy outlook: Expectations declined for both the next year (82.3 to 80.4) and next five years (79.9 to 79.5). However, lower-income households were more upbeat short term and younger consumers more optimistic long term.
“Looking ahead, the decline in spending intentions, combined with weaker expectations about future economic conditions, suggests that Floridians are becoming more cautious. Moreover, if geopolitical tensions persist and energy markets remain volatile, higher gasoline and energy costs could place additional pressure on household budgets. At the same time, a softer labor market may limit income growth, further weighing on consumer confidence. Monitoring these developments will be important to assess whether this month’s decline represents a temporary adjustment or the beginning of a broader shift in consumer sentiment,” said Sandoval.
Methodology
Conducted Feb.1 to March 26, the University of Florida study reflects the responses of 314 individuals who were reached on cellphones representing a demographic cross section of Florida.
Data are weighted based on Florida county of residence, age group, and sex to ensure representativeness of the Florida population. The population figures used for weighting (targets) are obtained from the Population Program of the Bureau of Economic and Business Research (BEBR), which produces the official population estimates for the state of Florida. Phone data quality is maintained by monitoring and reviewing interviews and preventing duplicate records.
The index used by UF researchers is benchmarked to 1966, which means a value of 100 represents the same level of confidence for that year. The lowest index possible is 2, and the highest is 150.
Source: University of Florida
© 2026 Florida Realtors®